Before you “tie one on” tonight — or celebrate from the comfort of your couch in pajamas with leftover holiday cookies — let’s take a moment to rewind 2025. Because if this year had a theme, it was this:

Everyone expected chaos. What we actually got was clarity.

The market crash that never arrived

Let’s start with the question everyone kept asking:

• Is the housing market going to crash?

• Should I wait for prices to fall?

• Is Las Vegas overpriced?

Here’s what really happened:

The market did not crash.
In fact, median home prices in Las Vegas ticked up slightly in the fourth quarter. At the same time, inventory increased, days on market stretched a bit, and buyers had more choices than they’ve seen in years.

Translation?

Not a cliff.
Not a bubble bursting.

2025 was a reset.

Why some sellers felt confused

If you listed your home and it didn’t sell right away this year, you definitely weren’t alone.

Many sellers asked:

• Why didn’t my home sell in a weekend like in 2021?

• Why are buyers asking for closing costs?

• Why is my neighbor’s home sitting, too?

Here’s why:

the market became price-sensitive again
buyers had more options — especially new construction
homes needed updating, staging, strategy… not just an MLS number

The homes that were:

• beautifully presented

• priced correctly

• move-in ready

sold.

The homes that were:

• dated

• overpriced

• photographed on a flip phone

sat.

It wasn’t doom.
It was normal — something many newer buyers and sellers had never experienced.

Builders were the main characters of 2025

If 2025 had supporting actors, it was new home builders.

They:

• kept building

• delivered record levels of standing inventory

• rolled out some of the biggest incentives we’ve seen in years

Think:

• closing cost credits

• rate buydowns

• design center discounts

• price reductions on quick move-ins

Those incentives helped buyers manage monthly payments, which mattered far more than list price.

And here’s an important note looking ahead:

Those deep builder incentives aren’t expected to continue at the same level in 2026.
That may give resale sellers a little breathing room as the gap between new and resale narrows.

People kept moving to Las Vegas — and they will again in 2026

Despite the noise, people continued to do what they’ve been doing for years:

relocating here for affordability
retiring here for lifestyle and sunshine
moving for job growth in tourism, sports, tech, and logistics
trading in high-tax states for a financial reset

And that’s not changing in 2026.

We’re also watching big projects come online this year, including:

• major expansions in Grand Park in Summerlin West

• new activity around La Madre Peaks Village

• additional 55+ and luxury lifestyle communities

• more mixed-use growth, walkable areas, and retail hubs

The valley keeps evolving — and real estate evolves with it.

So… what might 2026 bring?

Here’s the simplest version:

• Mortgage rates: likely easing into the low–mid 6s, occasionally high 5s

• Prices: expected to stabilize or see modest appreciation

• Inventory: slowly improving, giving buyers more choice

• Sales volume: likely to increase as pent-up demand returns

And no — we don’t expect 3% rates again unless you’re looking at builder-paid buydown specials.

We are entering what many economists are calling:

The Great Housing Reset
Not fast. Not dramatic.
Just steady normalization where affordability gradually improves.

If you’re planning a move in 2026…

Whether you are:

• in your brand-new home

• happily staying put

• or planning to buy or sell this year

Here’s my best advice:

• get educated

• run numbers early

• compare new vs. resale

• understand incentives

• don’t wait for a crash that experts aren’t predicting

And, of course, stay close to Vegas Confidential — because we’ll be tracking every builder release, incentive change, and community announcement along the way.

Want to go deeper?

If you're looking to make moves in 2026:

Download my Las Vegas Lifestyle Guide
Perfect if you're relocating and want to live like a local on day one.

Download my New Construction Guide
If you're builder-curious, this is your roadmap to incentives, lot strategy, and how not to overpay.

And thank you — truly — for your support this year.
Our YouTube channel blew past 8,000 subscribers, and that happened because you watched, liked, shared, commented, and trusted me with your questions and moves. I’m beyond grateful.

Here’s to 2026:
fewer headlines
more clarity
smart choices
and the right home for this next chapter

Happy New Year — talk soon.