Two weeks ago, I told you clearer skies are not ahead.

Well. You had thoughts.

Some of you thanked me for saying it out loud. Some of you were, let’s say, less thrilled. And a lot of you asked me the same question, in about fifty different ways.

“Okay, Jennifer. So is this a crash?”

No.

And I don’t say that lightly. I moved to Las Vegas in 2006, right at the top. I was selling high-rise residences at CityCenter when the bottom fell out. I watched the median home in this valley go from $315,000 to $118,000.

That crash had a name. Actually, it had a few. Countrywide was one of them. Stated income loans were another. Tell us what you make, and we’ll take your word for it. No pay stubs. No tax returns. I saw buyers finance 100 percent of the price with the closing costs wrapped in on top. Zero skin in the game. So when the market turned, they handed back the keys.

Those loans are gone. Today, every buyer proves their income and proves they can afford the payment. Most put real money down. And the people who own homes here have real equity.

Will some people get hurt in this market? Yes. Inflation, gas, and insurance are squeezing a lot of households, and some will fall behind. But this isn’t 2008.

Not even close.

But don’t hold your breath for a rebound, either.

The median single family home sold for $475,000 in August, off the $490,000 record from earlier this year. Sales just dropped almost 12 percent in a single month. And 7,590 homes are sitting on the market without a single offer.

So what happened? Here’s the part nobody’s talking about.

Remember 2021? Rates under 3 percent, everyone working from their kitchen table, and half of California discovering Summerlin. Buyers made the moves they’d planned for three, four, five years down the road, and they made them all at once.

We borrowed buyers from the future.

And now the bill has come due. A lot of the people who would be shopping today already bought.

So this isn’t the market falling apart. It’s the market catching its breath.

The one number I’d want if I were you

It’s called months of supply. Simple question: if no one listed another home, how long would it take to sell everything on the market right now?

Under four months, sellers have the edge. Four to six, it’s balanced. Over six, buyers are in charge.

Las Vegas is sitting at just over four and a half months, and climbing.

Want to see what climbing looks like? In one week, more than 750 homes came onto the market. 434 went under contract.

And 912 sellers cut their price.

That’s more price cuts than new listings. In one week.

Some of those sellers are clients of mine with 3 and 4 percent rates locked in. They’d love to hold on, but they’re moving out of state, and keeping a house in Las Vegas while you live in another state just doesn’t pencil. So those homes come on the market, rate or no rate.

Here’s what nobody tells you: there is no “Las Vegas market”

Remember that four and a half months of supply for the whole valley?

Now drive out to Del Webb at Lake Las Vegas. There’s about 12 months of inventory there.

Twelve months. That’s nearly three times the valley average, and double the line where buyers take charge.

Then head to Summerlin. While the valley-wide median slipped about 1 percent, the average sale price in Summerlin over the last 12 months is up 3 percent, to $963,576, according to Homes.com.

Even there, it’s not one market. The five most expensive home sales in the valley in July all closed under their original asking price, and three of them were in Summerlin.

Same city. Same rates. Completely different markets.

So when someone tells you what “the market” is doing, ask them which one.

Shopping new construction? Read this twice.

KB just cut two brand new single story homes at Cloudbreak Ridge by about $55,000 each. Taylor Morrison has a move-in-ready home at Ashland that’s $150,000 off.

I spent years on the builder side, and I can tell you builders don’t make cuts like that on a hunch. They’re looking at their own months of supply, and they don’t love what they see.

But here’s the twist. Builders pulled 31 percent fewer permits in August than a year ago, and they’re breaking ground on about 30 percent fewer homes.

Fewer homes started today means fewer deals tomorrow.

This may be the window. And windows close.

So stop asking whether it’s a buyer’s market or a seller’s market.

That question doesn’t have one answer anymore. Ask two better ones.

What’s the months of supply in my neighborhood and price range?

And what are homes there actually selling for, compared to list?

I walk through all of it, including how to find those numbers for your own neighborhood, in my new video.

Want to watch? You can catch it on my YouTube channel, Living in Las Vegas with Jennifer Graff, this Saturday at 4 p.m.

Or skip the homework. Text me your neighborhood at 702-335-4779, and I’ll send you your numbers.

Jennifer

P.S. Not sure which Las Vegas neighborhoods fit your life? Take my quiz at vegasconfidentialquiz.com.